Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Comparing Global Warming To AIDS

If you read just one thing in the Lexington Herald Leader this year, read this:

My presentation to state legislators on climate change was based on more than 300 peer-reviewed articles in the learned journals. Gore's movie was based on just two.

I made one central point: The U.N. climate change panel, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has exaggerated the effect of greenhouse gases on temperature at least fourfold. Correcting the panel's flawed math has an effect equivalent to cutting man-made greenhouse gas emissions by 75 percent overnight.

The IPCC says the "radiative forcing" from CO2 rose by 20 percent between 1995 and 2005. Yet in that period the atmospheric concentration of CO2 rose from 360 to 378 parts per million -- just 5 percent. The radiative forcing effect -- which causes temperature change -- rose by only 1 percent. That's a 20-fold exaggeration by the IPCC.

Yes, the world is warming, we have made a small contribution to it and we can expect a little more oof it. But Gooch speaks for Kentucky's working miners and for everyone who uses the electricity their labor provides, when he agrees with me that we need to get the science right or -- as with HIV -- we will get the policy wrong.

If we get the policy wrong, it is the poorest people in Kentucky and elsewhere in the world who will suffer most. They will die in the tens of millions for want of the light and heat and power and medical care that we are lucky enough to take for granted.