Well, clearly I was wrong when I said last week Governor Fletcher was going to drop out of the 2007 race very soon. He spoke forcefully this morning to Republicans in Louisville and clearly is not leaving the scene without a BIG push. I had surmised that encouragement from above would get it done before the June 7 arraignment. Witnesses were split on whether or not the move to add Robbie Rudolph would ultimately help him win re-election, but no doubt remains about his plans to fight on through next year.
The next thing to happen is the court case on the merit hiring thing. Governor Fletcher didn't sound like a man who is about to go plead guilty to make it all go away. (Not that that would work at this point, anyway.) Concerns were voiced about today's new enthusiasm being too little and too late. Time will tell, but I don't think we have heard the last of the ugliness with Steve Pence.
Now the focus (with regard to the Governor's race) has to be on Congress. Democrat hopefullness aside, the Republicans might lose seats but can't realistically be expected to lose the majority in the House. Even if the D's get close, Chandler is still in the minority and, I think, becomes slightly more likely to jump into the 2007 race. Hal Rogers also becomes significantly more likely to stay put, leaving Governor Fletcher a clear shot through May. Chandler has a little pink in his voting record, which could be a real liability for him in trying to move up. If Ernie can revamp his image sufficiently, the current conventional wisdom that Chandler would win in a walk notwithstanding, Ben may even become dissuaded from running.
Even a damaged Fletcher beats anyone else on the Dem side next year.
