Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Louisville Columnist Discounts Fletcher's Chances

John David Dyche may get attacked for detailing his version of the failures of the Fletcher campaign in today's Courier Journal. And he may get attacked for listing what he calls achievements of the Fletcher administration.

But it is hard to argue with his bottom-line analysis:

So, does Ernie Fletcher stand a chance? Perhaps the prevalence of the question provides its answer. Beshear is a big government liberal Kentuckians would ordinarily reject, but these are not ordinary times. Fletcher's best hope now may be a big mistake of the kind his foe is unlikely to make.

But mistakes do happen. For example, this pundit, ever prone to optimistically overestimating the rational self-interest of Republican voters, predicted they would prefer Anne Northup to Fletcher in the GOP primary.

The Fletcher campaign probably will turn in the final days of the campaign to promoting actions of the past four years or laying out a vision for the next four years. The public has a greater need for the latter, but the campaign probably will have to focus on the former.

The major untold story of the campaign is the severe damage the Fletcher campaign inflicted on itself recruiting over the summer against GOP House members who supported Northup in the primary. Seeking retribution has its place in politics, but that place is usually only after the general election.