RPK Lincoln Day 2007

Gov. Mitt Romney spoke Saturday night. His theme for the presidential run seems to be "America is the hope of the world." He was well received and word was circulating that he would be back for the 5th district Lincoln dinner in March. The focus was on the gubernatorial candidates, though. Senator McConnell had the best line of the night when he said he was going to state clearly who he was supporting. After a perfect pause that had a lot of people on the edge of their seats, he announced that he was for -- the Indianapolis Colts. Very funny.

What follows in the next three posts are some notes I made while the three candidates were speaking. The key to this primary will be the various factions coming together after the primary and working together to win the general election. I haven't seen much to give me confidence that we are moving in that direction. Hope that changes.

Anne Northup Speaks

This is clearly Anne's crowd in her hometown. Hardcore supporters of the Governor were conspicuous in not standing when she was introduced. There may be meaningful policy differences between the candidates, but on this first night of head-to-head speechmaking, it appears the campaign will be about other things. Among the three, Governor Fletcher spoke with the most energy. Northup's speech sounds much less like a campaign speech, but her theme is her background and her conservatism and principles. It seems like she is going out of her way not to throw red meat to what is clearly her crowd. No applause lines. One subtle swipe she has made twice is that Republicans must hold onto the Governor's Mansion or risk being overcome by big spending, over-regulating and over-taxing Democrats.

Billy Harper Speaks

Candidate Billy Harper's campaign workers have passed out "positive campaign" stickers to a few attendees. As he rose to speak, he received polite applause. After starting by quoting Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment, he moved on to education, saying that we need to expect more from our children. He says despite small improvements, we are failing in educating our children.

His call to end the AMC/LLET received polite applause. His campaign is based on his being an outsider, but on a night of accomplished speakers Billy Harper stands out as an unpolished speaker. He has no traction with this crowd at all.

Ernie Fletcher Speaks To RPK

Governor Fletcher was the first gubernatorial candidate to speak tonight. As he rose to address the Lincoln Day gathering of 1500 Republicans, he was greeted warmly by all and vigorously by some. The people at one table in the back started a chant of "Four more years" that was not picked up around the room. At various applause lines, those who stood and cheered seemed pretty sparse. The Governor took one shot at Northup, saying the race shouldn't be about electability but ideas.

Northup In Fletcher Country

Gubernatorial candidate Anne Northup came to Jessamine county to speak to a few active Republicans. She said she has nothing against Governor Fletcher and agrees with him on most issues -- except she is for repeal of the 'Alternative Minimum Tax' -- but she believes daily polling data from before last year's election and results received this week prove he just can't be re-elected. She said if the fall election is about scandals and pardons, Republicans lose.

Can the Louisville candidate put together enough of a statewide network to win in barely three and a half months? Does the 'he is good, but he can't win' approach pull enough primary voters to unseat the incumbent in May? As important as these questions are, the real one is can the primary winner pull the other camp in for the necessary support to win in November?

Assuming my technology holds up, I'll be live blogging the Lincoln dinner tonight in Louisville.

Feeding A Dead Dog: Kentucky Jails

Governor Fletcher says he plans to increase state funding for local jails.

Rather than continuing to pour too many tax dollars into incarceration, we really should have a serious discussion about privatizing jails.

Still Not Getting The Trouble With Social Security

A liberal Kentucky blogger this morning displays maddening devotion to the goofy bureaucratic idea that governments can take in tax money, spend it, count it as a loan to itself -- and therefore an asset -- and that none of this carried on at a rapid pace for years and years represents a crisis. And these are the same people who extrapolate a warm month or two into boiling oceans and Canadian tropics.

All this reminds me of gubernatorial wannabe Jonathan Miller and the moribund KAPT program. Keep swinging, guys.

As baby boomers and their children -- with their vast sums of stock market funds -- grow older, the inevitability of private accounts in Social Security scares them silly.

"The Vision Thing"

Swept Under The Rug

The federal case surrounding the Fayette County Detention Center isn't getting headlines these days, but it is only getting worse. The liability for taxpayers will eventually be substantial. The biggest surprise is that Mayor Newberry isn't publicly addressing the problem.

It's not like he doesn't know about it.

Free Market Health Care? In Kentucky?

The state is working on putting out for bids the health insurance of the 262,000 children covered by Medicaid and KCHIP in Kentucky.

This should get folks upset before, during, and after it saves us some money.

More Fletcher Versus McConnell

Governor Fletcher proposed a tax break for a solid voting bloc and LG Steve Pence responded by saying the state budget surplus really isn't one.

Meanwhile, GOP donors report none of the gubernatorial campaigns are giving out specific polling data.

UPDATE: A Northup poll shows her even with Fletcher and with Harper way behind.

Will Jack Conway Indict Louisville Courier-Journal?

Louisville candidate Jack Conway really, really wants to be Attorney General. Maybe he just wants the office so he can prosecute the Louisville Courier-Journal for "journalistic malpractice."

Alternative Minimum What?

GOP candidate Billy Harper keeps calling the Alternative Minimum Calculation -- actually the LLET -- an Alternative Minimum Tax.

This is brilliant. What's Governor Fletcher going to do, correct him on the name of this insidious tax? Nope. But the General Assembly really should stop taxing unprofitable Kentucky companies.

"Wage Controls Reduce Poverty," "Bush Lied"

Sen. Barack Obama wants to make it illegal for Republicans to lie in political campaigns and The New York Times loves it.

"You Can't Have It Both Ways"

Our Next Attorney General

Health Insurance Give-Aways Cost Too Much

In 2007, Congress is expected to reauthorize the SCHIP subsidy for medical expenses of children in families who don't qualify for Medicaid. No one can seriously think this won't happen, but we could do better. A long-term fix would be to enact the FairTax and allow people to go across state lines to buy health insurance.

Time To Change Debate On Taxes

Fifteen states tax food purchased in grocery stores. Tennessee tops the list with the highest tax rate at 8.35%, and some people there want to get rid of that tax and instead tax incomes. They suggest, of course, that doing so will benefit the poor.

In Kentucky, where we tax incomes but not grocery food, we should go in the exact opposite direction our neighbors to the south are contemplating for exactly the same reason.

A food tax is regressive, hitting low-income earners harder than others. But there is no ripple effect through the economy caused by consumption taxes. The ripples -- a type of multiplier effect -- hit the more vulnerable citizens harder and make upward mobility that much harder. Corporate taxes, however, get passed on through every layer of production and hit the consumer as well. If we really want to help lower-income people with tax policy, we should move away from taxing profits, incomes, and business activity. Taxing consumption only, even at rates that look pretty high at first glance, would cause less collateral damage to our economy.

Democratic Congressman Apparently Can't Read

Earlier today, Rep. Baron Hill (D-Indiana) said "access to health care is a constitutional right."

Last time I checked, HillaryCare wasn't in the Constitution.

February GOP Showdown In Jessamine County

Word is circulating that the annual Republican Party of Kentucky Lincoln Dinner in Louisville is completely sold out.

If you haven't gotten tickets, don't worry. If you really want to see the GOP gubernatorial candidates go toe-to-toe, you can head out to the Jessamine County Republican Party Lincoln Dinner on Saturday, February 10 at the Bluegrass Sportsman's Club. The event runs 11 AM to 1 PM.