We are passing a tax increase

It looks increasingly likely that little or nothing will be done to address the public employee benefits shortfall we have known about for a long time.

Save the congratulations for the closed-door conferees until we see strong action taken on this front. Years after we started calling tax increases "fee increases," the ticking time bomb health and pension payments we are obligated to make, but don't have the money for represent an unprecedented tax increase on Kentuckians.

I wish this were an April Fools' joke. But at $26 billion and counting, it is no laughing matter.

Rescuing Kathy Stein

Would you believe Rep. Kathy Stein (D-Lexington) has requested "extra police patrols" around her house after she stuffed Kentucky's illegal immigration bill?

That's what she told Governing Magazine.

Senate President David Williams might need extra police patrols around his house for facing the wrath of the teachers union and House Minority Leader Jeff Hoover might need extra police patrols around his house for tweaking the labor unions.

The union thugs are at least twice as scary as normal citizens who just want the government to follow the law.

Shuckin' and jivin' the budget

Mark Hebert says reporters never really wanted budget negotiations in the open. And Ernie Fletcher's former spokesman says government secrecy is good for you.

Can't wait to see what happens behind closed doors when President David Williams agrees with Speaker Jody Richards.

A more efficient lottery would pay for this

One likely casualty of this year's budget malfunction is the Academy of Mathematics and Science at Western Kentucky University. This is an illegal charter school with students who come from all over the state.

If lawmakers would just get over their ideological opposition to school choice, we could make charter schools legal, spread them all over the state, and it wouldn't be such a tragedy when a strong new program like this goes down. The House Dems' rigid opposition to making the Kentucky Lottery operate more efficiently is to blame for this. Who are they protecting and why?

Looks like no budget

A source in the room where the Budget Conference Committee is being held said Rep. Larry Clark just stood up and said "It's over."

And all the House Democrats left.

If this is it on the budget, the next most important thing for the legislature to do is get serious about cutting public employee benefits to keep from bankrupting the state. That would be the conference committee on HB 600.

Midnight update: Jack Brammer of the Lexington Herald Leader says Speaker Jody Richards told him they will meet at 4 pm Saturday to try again on the budget.

Tuesday is last chance to "throw the bums out"

Libertarian Party of Kentucky sources claim to have a candidate ready to file against tax-raising House Budget Chairman Harry Moberly. The deadline for candidates who are running as "independents" to file a Statement of Candidacy is Tuesday, April 1 at 4 pm.

Webb tangles lottery advertising facts

Pushing for the status quo in Kentucky Lottery waste tonight, Rep. Robin Webb claimed implausibly that the lottery gets up to $15 in return for every dollar it spends on advertising.

I'll call B.S. on that one.

It's probably a lot more like how Senate Budget Chairman Charlie Borders described it here on Monday: a complete waste.

Indeed, how much less would we have to spend on correctional facilities if we stopped advertising the lottery and just did a few PSAs telling people that if they really want to get rich they probably are going to have to work for it?

Covering Budget Crunch Time

The Budget Conference Committee was supposed to go into session at 3pm, according to KET Annex staff. That didn't happen. Now they are supposed to be going in at 4pm. Keep checking back here for updates.

KET will have video of the open meetings this weekend and I will be covering as much as possible.

Update: There is a little breaking news here.

Missing the boat on Kentucky education reform

There are two bills in the legislature that would improve our school assessment program, CATS. They are SB 1 and HB 15.

In the following videos, Bluegrass Institute education analyst Richard Innes clearly explains what is wrong with CATS.

Obstruction of justice is a crime

Phone records at the Fayette county jail indicate conspirators Jim Kammer and Dr. Don Leach have received several calls in recent weeks from the FBI. Additionally, Leach had an interesting cell phone call in his office about the ongoing FBI investigation Mayor Jim Newberry keeps trying to downplay.

Can't get anyone to talk about the meetings Kammer and Leach had with the FBI. The grand jury investigating crimes by jail officials at the facility meets again Friday, April 4.

Toothpicks holding their eyes open

No one is blinking in the General Assembly stand-off over the budget. The main sticking point is whether or not to raise taxes on Kentuckians. House Budget Chairman Harry Moberly was reduced to on-camera profanity in last night's late night negotiations.

I can't imagine the House and Senate will reconcile their positions any time soon.

I will be on the Leland Conway radio show in Lexington (www.wlap.com) this morning at 9:30 talking about the budget.

FairTax train moving down the track

U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) may wind up with three primary opponents. They are all in favor of the FairTax.

A Democratic opponent awaits the winner of that contest. The Democrat is a FairTax supporter as well.

Your gorilla is too fat, Mr. Keeling

You've heard of big problems described as an "800 pound gorilla." This morning, Lexington Herald Leader columnist Larry Dale Keeling packs an extra hundred pounds on him, calls him casino gambling, and claims that leaving him sitting in the corner is keeping the state from progressing.

"Second, no rational discussion of long-term revenue policy can be conducted until the 900-pound gorilla in our midst — casino gambling — has its day on the ballot.

Both are valid messages. The latter in particular cannot be repeated often enough. Until we decide to either feed or euthanize this gorilla, lawmakers will always use his lurking presence as an excuse to avoid facing up to the state’s fiscal reality.

Feeding the gorilla won’t solve the state’s revenue problems. But it would answer the question of how much revenue he can generate. That revenue, in turn, would serve as a temporary stopgap that gives lawmakers time to figure out what other steps they need to take to give Kentucky a stable, sustainable revenue base.

Euthanizing the gorilla makes the path to a stable, sustainable revenue base considerably longer. But it, at least, removes one of the major distractions that has kept the state from starting that journey."

I added the emphasis to this passage to draw attention to the wild claim that not deciding on casinos one way or the other is preventing state policymakers from making progress on planning for the future. That isn't our problem. Kentucky can't afford Big Government and the effort to buy it or lease it on the cheap just makes matters worse. That is Kentucky's gorilla.

Paging Saint Jude

It's pretty funny to think House Democrats today temporarily booted their efforts to raise taxes to skip out with Governor Steve Beshear, fresh off his self-administered invitation-only casino gambling butt kicking, to go see Slick Willie refuse to read the handwriting on the wall about his wife's dead presidential aspirations.

Pretty good day's work for the patron saint of lost causes.

Jason Mays takes on Hookey Hoffman

Sure hope House Majority Caucus Chair Charlie Hoffman had fun cheering on Bill Clinton today. His Republican opponent, Jason Mays of Georgetown, is raising money at a furious pace from various groups of people who are worn out with Hoffman.

Sorry Charlie likes to go in hiding when an opponent works to pin him down on his lackluster performance. That won't play so well on YouTube.

Quick, someone ask Sorry Charlie if he is really a target of an FBI investigation! Pretty wild stuff.

This is one to watch...

Horse trading on the budget

The Senate's upper hand in the upcoming budget negotiations could wind up being a good thing for education.

The House and Governor Steve Beshear can be skeptical about the Senate plan to raise revenue by forcing the Lottery to tighten up its operations, but they don't dare go against the effort. At the same time, the Senate can rail against the tax increases the House and Governor want without fear of any loss.

And Governor Beshear doesn't really have much to offer in return for his one priority, casino gambling. He has really already played all his cards.

So it comes down to what the Senate wants to ask for in exchange for approving the budget. The House may be asked to decide between the teachers union and the budget. It's a great time to do it and Kentucky families stand to benefit the most in the bargain.

House budget is the outlier

The Senate budget taxes less and borrows less than the House budget and will make it pretty easy for Governor Steve Beshear to side with Senate President David Williams against Speaker Jody Richards and House Budget Chairman Harry Moberly.

Gun grabber panic alert

Law-abiding concealed carry permit-holding citizens will attend the Frankfort City Commission meeting tonight with firearms in their possession, an action which is specifically not prohibited by law. Some people think this is a really big deal.

Sleep for twenty years, Todd, and maybe we will elect you governor

Treasurer Todd Hollenbach came into his vestigial office this year amid an effort to save taxpayer money and shut the office down.

So, what are we getting for our money? This.

Not only has Hollenbach managed to do nothing at all in office, he hasn't even gotten around to changing the name at the top of his own website. Look at the very top of that page.

The House Democrats' concern for taxpayer interests ends in about the same place as those of lazy politicians begins.

Are you getting all of this?

Yet another screw-up hits the Fayette County Detention Center. Details below. Mayor Jim Newberry had no comment.

Don't know what I'm talking about? Start here. And then watch this.